Beyond The Basics : What You Need to Know Once You Can Count Cards

How to Count Without Getting Caught


 Counting cards is only half the battle. The other half is disguising what you are doing so that the casino doesn't kick you out. Your goal at the blackjack table is to appear to be like any other patron. Which you are. 


The first thing you need to do is shut your mouth. Seriously. Talking is only going to distract yourself and give yourself away. Lots of gamblers are quiet anyway. If someone at the table talks to you, grunt. Don't engage them. Most people are only too happy to ignore you anyway. The exception to this is the pitboss. They might engage you in conversation as a test. In which case, have a chat  with them. Stop counting completely. Flat bet the minimum and have a nice chat with the pit boss.

Cover

There are two types of cover. Betting cover, and playing cover. I'm a believer in betting cover. Every card counter knows to develop a bet schedule. Personally, what I recommend is half kelly, which means you bet around 30% of your advantage. So if you have a $10,000 bankroll, and a 1% advantage, you bet $30.

A typical bet schedule looks something like this :

Bankroll $100,000

Playing two hands

TC 1 $25

TC 2 $100

TC 3 $300

TC 4 $500

TC 5 $700


But if you are late in the show, and a whole bunch of small cards come out, and the true count jumps from $100 to $500, I'm not making that leap.

Instead what I do is try to work my way up there. My bet is wherever it is at. Then I have my target bet, which is what I would bet without cover. And then, as I win hands, I will press. 

This appears a lot more authentic than robotically sizing your bets based on the count. 

And if you win a big hand, like a bet or a double, that is a good time to press harder. Again, working your way slowly towards your ideal bet.

You want to look natural, like you aren't really putting any thought into your bet at all. It's just sitting there, in the circle, doing its thing. 

So in general, I try to avoid pressing unless I'm winning. And I keep my bet up until I lose, even if the count drops.

And this doesn't really cost you anything. You're still making positive expectation bets. You end up betting different than your bet schedule, but that's not the end of the world. That doesn't really cost you any money. In fact it might even generate more money, in the case of keeping your bets up when winning, albeit at the expense of an increase in ROR. But since I play with a very low ROR in the first place, that doesn't matter.

Playing cover however is usually just throwing money away, because most of the time casino staff can't tell a good play from a bad play anyway. And if they do know what they're looking for one intentionally flubbed play isn't going to make them not notice your perfect basic strategy and the way your bet moves with the count.

Another important aspect of betting cover is not dropping down from your max bet to the table minimum at the start of a shoe. That's just too obvious. So either drop your bet but still leave something chunky up there, or it is time to bounce. Maybe even just hit the bathroom and switch pits. Or, if you play poker, go play poker for a while. 

Actually, there is one cover play I like. And that is when I have two hands, and one is twenty, and the other is a stiff, and we are below the index but near it anyway (TC +2) then I insure just the twenty and not the stiff. It costs almost nothing, reduces your variance, and you look like a total idiot. Also taking even money on raised bets, again even if you are below the index. Of course it all depends on how sweaty the place is. Nothing wrong with completely using no cover and just playing like a complete autist. That's also surprisingly effective.


Longevity

But longevity is important. Hit and run sessions are great, if that is viable for you. Get in, get the money down, and get out before anyone figures out what is happening. But it is a double edged sword, because hit and run sessions also limit your volume. Sometimes you need to push some boundaries, and you might just find that the casino is very tolerant and they just take your action.

 


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