The Truth About Splitting Pairs
Pair splitting in blackjack is usually a lot of fun, but it can also be an excruciating moment if you make a large bet and start splitting and doubling. Before you know it, one bet turns into four or five, and you have a lot riding on a single hand. That is the joy and the agony of blackjack.
Never Split Fs
One rule of thumb you might have heard is never splitting anything with an 'F' in it. Fours, fives, or faces. This is mostly true, although in a game where you can double after you split, you do want to split 4,4 vs 5 and 6. This is unintuitive because 8 is a better total than 4, but by splitting you open yourself up to get a 5, 6, 7, or ace, and then you can go for the double down. It's an aggressive play, but also a long-term money winner.
You would never split 5s and hopefully the reason why is obvious. A total of 10 is incredible! There are 5/13 cards (38%) that will make you 20 or 21. That's why we double down aggressively on a 10. And the nice thing about doubling on 10, unlike 11, is that the ace here is your friend instead of your enemy. There is no worse feeling in blackjack than doubling down on an 11 and catching an ace since that is usually a card you love to have.
Faces are a different story. For basic strategists, you never split. But card counters can and should split tens. The indexes for this play are fairly easy to remember. Split tens against 6 at 4, 5 at 5, and 4 at 6. However, what I do is what I use is a 'risk averse' index. My reasoning is as follows:
Splitting Tens
Splitting tens is a play that can attract a lot of attention, but not in a good way. Furthermore, right at the index the gain in EV is negligible, and you incur a lot of variance. By waiting for a slightly higher true count, you can capture most of the gain in EV, but split at a much lower frequency, lowering your variance and heat at almost no cost.
Risk-averse indexes are especially important for fully Kelly bettors.
The problem with splitting tens, and why it attracts a lot of heat, is that there are usually only two types of people who split ten. Gamblers who don't really care and are just out for a laugh, and card counters, and it usually isn't that hard to differentiate between the two.
There is a small little casino in Quebec in the town of La Malbaie named Casino Charlevoix. Next door to the casino is the ridiculously overpriced Fairmont Le Manoir hotel, where I stayed paying $200 a night (and this was more than 10 years ago too!). Anyway, during the height of my career as a professional blackjack player, I went to this picturesque little town. And if you ever get the chance, you should because it is lovely. They also have this neat little model of the solar system in their walking path which is way cool. I made it to everywhere except Pluto, which is way out there as you can imagine. I also stayed at a charming little bread and breakfast run by the cutest little gay couple which was much more affordable and came with a delicious breakfast. Good times in La Malbaie. But I digress.
So conditions on the main floor in Charlevoix were atrocious, as they are in most of Quebec. 8 decks, H17, DAS, DA2. The house edge on these games is 0.69, and you don't have an edge until TC + 2. They are beatable, but lousy games. But inside the high-limit room! $25 min, 6 decks with 1 deck cut. S17. A beautiful game. And I was playing there for a couple of days. One day I played on the $100 min table. I'd like to say it was because the other games were crowded and I wanted to play heads-up, which is somewhat true, but really I wanted a chance to play against the absolutely stunning female dealer. She made the cutest little noises when I won a big hand.
Anyway, shortly after I played on the $100 table, casino staff offered to set me up with a private game, which I accepted. A couple of shoes into that, I split tens, and from then on I was basically persona non grata in the casino. Half shooed indefinitely. They aren't allowed to back off card counters in Quebec, but they can make the games unplayable. I stuck around for a few days, just to let it sink in how much I wasn't wanted, then pressed on to Casino New Brunswick in Moncton.
Other Pair Splits
Knowing when and when not to split a pair of nines is also very important.
You split 99 vs 2-6, 8 and 9. You stay vs 7, tens, and ace. This is a play that a lot of players screw up. Many amateur blackjack players think that 18 is a pretty good holding. After all, it is past the mandatory stop level of 17. Actually18 is not that great. If you had 18 every hand you would end up losing money.
Finally, remember the all-important rule to always split aces and eights. That is a good one to know. And you should know that once you split aces, the casino will usually only give you a single card on each ace. It is unfortunate you can't hit if you get a five or other low card, but even with one card only to split aces, splitting aces is still a great deal, as you have a pretty good chance of getting soft 21 on at least one of them.
Common Mistakes When Splitting Pairs
One mistake that players make when they are splitting pairs is the tendency to stop splitting or not double if they have split. This comes out of an abundance of caution, but in blackjack you want to make the highest EV play, and that means splitting and resplitting when it is called for, as well as doubling down when the situation is right. If you want to be cautious, don't play blackjack. And there is a good argument for not gambling, not playing blackjack in the first place. But if you are going to play the game, play it right. Make the play with the highest expected return. That's your best chance of making money.
Another common mistake is being afraid to split eights against a ten. We get it. A ten up is a scary card. You just know the dealer has another 10 under there. But the reality is, splitting eights is the best play compared to hitting or staying on your 88. You are risking more but losing less. That's just the reality of the situation. And fear of losing will trick you into making the wrong play, which ironically, will cause you to be more likely to lose in the long run.
How Rule Variations Can Impact Splits
If you have ever travelled internationally to play blackjack, you will probably have encountered the ENHC rule. ENHC stands for European No Hole Card, and what this means is that the dealer doesn't take a hole card. And as a consequence of the way the game is dealt, you can resolve your hand, including making splits and doubles, and then the dealer shows up with a blackjack and sweeps all your bets! Remember in American style blackjack the dealer peeks for blackjack before play of the hand begins, so that isn't possible.
Luckily, the change in basic strategy for playing in an ENHC game is to never split or double against a ten or an ace, except with AA v T. So follow that guideline and you will minimize the chance of losing multiple bets against an eventual dealer blackjack.
Another rule that can change how you split is whether or not you double after you split. If double after split is prohibited, you don't want to make some of the more marginal splits, like 44 v 5,6 or 22 v 3. Always be sure to consult a basic strategy chart if you are playing against a new ruleset because these minute differences in basic strategy are important.
Another factor in splitting is how many decks are in play. In a double deck game, 66 v 7 and 77 v 8 become basic strategy splits! And the reason is fairly simple. With only two decks, removing two out of eight sevens makes a big difference for the 77 v 8 decision. After all, if you have 14, a 7 is the best card for you. Furthermore, when you split 77, you aren't looking for another 7 at all. What you want is a 4, or a 3. And the same logic applies with 66 v 7, although the impact is not as strong.
In fact, this also applies in 6 deck games! A total of 77 is not simply equivalent to hard 14, even in a six deck game. The index to early surrender hard 14 vs ten is +0. But the index to early surrender 77 v T is -1. For exactly the same reason, because of the EOR of the 7s.
Split Indexes
If you are a card counter, don't worry too much about the split indexes. There are a few that are important, like 44 v 4, since it occurs at +1 just like 99 v A in a H17 game. It is always good to know the index that are closest to zero since they appear at the highest frequency. But pairs are extremely uncommon in blackjack. You get them pretty much exactly 1/13 of the time (the math on that is pretty simple btw, you get any first card, and then you will match it 1/13 of the time). Excluding tens that is, which you match about 30% of the time. The chance of starting with a specific pair is about 0.6%, compared to the chance of getting a total of 11 with is about 5% (64/1326).
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