Analyzing Loss Rebates

Have you ever heard of Don Johnson? In 2010 he won over ten million from a number of different Atlantic City casinos by exploiting loss rebates. He wasn't counting cards - at least not overtly. He was just playing the game by the casino's rules and exploiting the promotions they used to draw in high rollers.

How He Did It

First off, he got very favourable rules. DOA, DA2, S17, LS, and RSA. That is about as good as it gets these days. These rules cut the house edge down to just 0.263%. This is important because the edge from exploiting the loss rebate isn't as big as you might think.

The most clearcut way to exploit the loss rebate promo is to quit any time you are down or up $500,000 or more. If you were to lose $500,000 one day and win $500,000 the next, you would end up ahead $100,000 or $50,000 a day. Good work if you can get it.

An alternative strategy is to play until you are down $2,500,000 or up $2,500,000. You want to quit at 2.5 million stuck because the loss rebate caps out at $500,000. This strategy nets around $125,000 a day.

Actually the $50,000 a day strategy is probably a lot safer. The only disadvantage to this strategy is that it might be so obvious you have an edge the casino will pull the offer.



Comments